Obʺedinenie prognozov - effektivnyĭ instrument povyshenii︠a︡ tochnosti prognozirovanii︠a︡
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For the macro-system of economic management, it is necessary to use forecasts of the main economic indicators. At the same time, the solution of the forecasting problem requires high efficiency. In practice, only one forecasting method is used in forecasting, and information that can be carried in models of other forecasting methods is usually discarded. The union of forecasts using the excluded piece of information contained in all forecast observations.
The study considers various approaches and methods for constructing combined forecasts, which are assumed to be both forms of combining and options for determining coefficients, with special weighted forecasts included in the union. Based on the data obtained for the period 1955-2020. on the production in the Russian Federation of certain types of industrial products production forecasting and the use of comparative analyzes of statistical forecasts, profit based on the use of various forecasting methods.
The group is intended for public positions of state and special organizations, search services of investment and insurance companies, financial and banking organizations, businessmen and managers, researchers, teachers, graduate students and students of economic universities and faculties, schools of business and entrepreneurship, as well as for everyone who dealing with economic forecasting.
